"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)

11.29.2011

today's analysis

I have a piece on the DRC elections up at The Atlantic today - click on over to read.

8 Comments:

Blogger Anand said...

Hi TIA,

Thanks for the overview/summary of the elections thus far. The link to where you said Tshisekedi is calling people to "terrorize" the government didn't work when I clicked on it. I'll try to find it, but could you post the source(s) you are quoting this from? I know about his pre election comments, but I read an article that said Kamerhe wanted to annul the election results, but Tshisekedi spokespeople said he didn't. So I am a little confused as to exactly what his position is right now. Thanks again for the analysis.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011 3:10:00 PM

 
Blogger texasinafrica said...

Hi, Anand,

Sorry about the link. Can't remember which story I linked to exactly, but he said it in several places. Here's a pre-election example: http://news.yahoo.com/dr-congo-opposition-leader-urges-voters-rise-194446603.html

Since I wrote that piece, Kamerhe has come out saying he wants to annul the election (as have three other opposition leaders). Tshisekedi thinks he has won the election and isn't going to declare it null and void if he won. I have a piece coming out on this hopefully soon - will post a link here when it's up.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011 8:50:00 PM

 
Blogger Anand said...

Thanks for the reply and the link. I was thinking that maybe Tshisekedi had said something new (since the voting has started). Also, thanks for putting a little comparison to the 2006 elections in your piece. That helps to get a better picture of what is happening this time around. Awaiting your next piece.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011 9:31:00 PM

 
Blogger texasinafrica said...

So today the UDPS is denouncing "systematic fraud in certain areas." Looks like they might be realizing they didn't win on the numbers - or that fraud will keep them from winning.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011 6:25:00 AM

 
Blogger Anand said...

Wow. There is such a variety of opinions out there. I have read many posts from Congolese citizens who are absolutely sure Tshisekedi will win. Apparently, many African observers say that the election was a success. I have a little trouble with that one. Seems like a partial success with tons of unresolved issues. I don't know that I accept the idea that "the elections were a success as far as Congo goes..." Many are also totally sure that Kabila will win due to rigging. All of these "inked-in" absolutes in a yet unfurled parchment. This update about UDPS slowly denouncing fraud is very telling. Yesterday, Kabila and Tshisekedi will honor the results, because they are both sure they will win I guess. I wonder what their perspectives will be in a few days. Thanks for the update.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011 1:25:00 PM

 
Anonymous DRC said...

Kamerhe did not call for the cancellation of the vote. Mulunda made a mistake. Kamerhe gave a press conference to deny that.

Are you sure that Kabila will win when he has failed to restore peace and security in the east? When he has failed to provide infrastructure in the east? Even when Mbusa and Kamerhe, originally from the east, are candidates?

Kabila is not popular in the west and the center. Kamerhe and Mbusa, originally from the east, are candidates. It is mathematically impossible for him to win.

Let's keep in mind that voters in the east where Kabila got many supporters in 2006 represent only 45%. Voters in the west and the center where Tshisekedi is popular represent 55%. Kamerhe and Mbusa being candidates, it will be impossible for Kabila to get more than 90% in the Kivus and Maniema like in 2006.
In 2011 Congolese do not have the same logic of voting as in 2006 elections where eastern people sanctionned belligerents. Let's keep in mind that in 2006 Tshisekedi was not candidate. So, things will be different this time.

Finally, it's a mistake to think that a unique candidate of opposition would be better. This is not true. Kamerhe's strategy of "encerclement" or"verouillage" is clear on that. A unique candidate of the opposition parties would benefited to Kabila as the second run of 2006.

Mathematically, it is impossible for Kabila to win this election, unless he cheats with the support of Ngoy Mulunda and the international community.

Thursday, December 01, 2011 4:55:00 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you think DRC is a Democratic Republic??. If not, do you think DRC deserve that name(with Democratic)??. If not, do you think the name DRC should be changed??. If yes, will you support the Petition: "DRC without D"??. Please help us launch such a universal Petition.

Thursday, December 01, 2011 9:03:00 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello All,
Hello TIA,
As a citizen of the DRC , I enjoyed your article published on AlJazeera English. I did havea a few comments; the first comment is that you seem to think that in the event if Tshisekedi wins he wouldnt be able to cooperate with Rwanda because of his past comments. Regardless of who wins, any DRC leader must copperate with Rwanda as they are a source of instability in the great lakes region due to their locked down political system which breeds animosity from within( like a pot waiting to explode)
The second comment is that, in my opinion you focused too much on what the international community thinks, yes they are donors but it is the congolese people who voted and its their choice that should be respected not whom the internal community is comfortable with.

Best Regards,

Tuesday, December 06, 2011 3:37:00 AM

 

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