this will end badly
From the BBC:
A former Rwandan army chief of staff, Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, has been shot in South Africa and taken to hospital in a critical condition.It's going to take awhile to sort this one out. Nyamwasa is reported to still be in surgery. There's a conflicting report that says he was shot while on his way to the Ghana-Australia World Cup match that took place earlier this afternoon, but the basics of the story seem to be the same from the media accounts that have been published thus far.
His wife told the BBC the couple had been returning from shopping when a gunman opened fire on the car.
She said it was an assassination attempt as there had been no demand for money or goods.
I'll need a lot more information before being able to offer anything in the way of reasonable analysis of these events, but here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Nyamwasa and his former colleague and friend, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, despise each other. They've been having a bit of a tit-for-tat for months now; Kagame blames Nyamwasa for the grenade attacks that have periodically hit Kigali over the course of the last few months. Here's some background on what they're mad at each other about.
- None of this will be helped by this report from Rwanda's official news agency that was published last week, in which the author refers to Nyamwasa in the past tense. That gives the conspiracy theorists fodder, although I'd expect that the "was" was used more in the "dead to me" sense than in the "he's actually dead" sense. Nyamwasa was most definitely alive on June 10 and, as of this writing, is still very much alive as well. (HT: @baldaufji)
- The shooting took place in Johannesburg, which, as we all know, can be a violent place at times and in certain neighborhoods. That said, as Mrs. Nyamwasa alludes, violent crime in Joburg is typically connected to theft. That this was apparently not that sort of crime - and that the shooter kept shooting until his gun jammed - gives some credibility to her claim that it was a targeted assassination attempt rather than random violence.
- There are reports of a strong troop presence on the streets in Kigali today, with both the presidential guard and the army posted along key routes, including the road to the airport. I don't see how this isn't connected to the Nyamwasa shooting; he certainly still has supporters in Kigali and the government is likely monitoring their activities. Of course, there's always concern that this could result in another grenade explosion after night falls.
- There are French and Spanish warrants out for Nyamwasa's arrest on charges relating to the lead-up to the genocide.