it's like christmas for nerds
Those of you who don't inhabit the world of political science geekdom probably don't spend much of your Octobers of even numbered years hearing endless talks on polling and redistricting. Seriously. I have friends who do this for a living, and it's ALL we talk about anymore.
The hot new thing in our little corner of that world is the website 538.com. 538 is the brainchild of Nate Silver, who's a bit of a wunderkind in the world of baseball statistics. Silver's turned his attention and models to politics this year, and he's getting some pretty interesting results. Right now, for example, they're predicting a 90.5% chance that Obama wins the election.
Silver was on the Colbert Report Tuesday night to explain his methods:
For the record, I think Silver's right. The economic crisis pushed Obama's momentum over the edge, and barring a huge gaffe or some unbelievable revelation in the next couple of weeks, Obama will win this election. McCain's campaign hasn't been run tightly or well, and his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee alienated his party's intellectuals and scared independent voters who are already scared by the stock and credit markets.