"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)


election watch

Polling, history, and the history of polling all indicate that McCain is probably sunk.


Anonymous Michael Westmoreland-White said...

At this point, only Obama can beat Obama and hand the election to McCain. Obama would have to come to the 3rd debate and say something on the order of, "I was wrong to quit Rev. Wright's church and also believe God should damn America. I think William Ayers would make a good Sec. of Education, don't you? Surprise: I really am a secret Muslim and I plan on hanging a picture of Iranian President Ahmedinejad in the Lincoln Bedroom." Even then, if the stock market hasn't stabilized, a McCain victory wouldn't be a sure thing--just a narrowing of his current "thumpin'."

I have predicted an Obama victory (with caveats) almost from the moment he won Iowa in the Dem. primaries (and have been regularly checking Nate Silver's site, along with 270towin.com which is more cautious, but allows one to have fun with simulations), but I haven't seen a presidential campaign come this far off the rails as McCain's has since Mondale (who probably had no chance against Reagan anyway) completely imploded in the last weeks of the '84 campaign. (And, just as Sarah Palin briefly made McCain competitive, but ultimately proved a liability, so Geraldine Ferraro, Mondale's running mate, briefly took him from 16 points behind to dead even in the polls--but baggage from her husband's business dealings turned her help into an anchor.)

McCain was not wrong in thinking that a female running mate could have helped him with still-disaffected Hillary supporters, but not an unqualified woman. Had he chosen Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) or Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) (both of whom briefly made his shortlist) or Condi Rice (as urged by many GOP insiders from the beginning), no one could have argued that the VP candidate was not ready to take over if needed. It would have been a MUCH tougher race for Obama.

Saturday, October 11, 2008 3:43:00 PM


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