one word: abortion
More on Obama's efforts to get evangelical voters on his side is here. My take is that he'll probably pull in about 40-45% of young evangelicals, especially first-time voters, but that among the over-40 crowd, he'll mostly just get those that John Kerry got. Unless McCain can mount a vigorous campaign centered around judicial appointments, I think most right-wing evanglical voters are going to stay home this year, and those that don't will eventually back McCain.
At the end of the day, most evangelical voters are single-issue abortion voters. I think that's a very unwise way to vote (and am pondering a post that will explain why for a bit later this summer), but it's reality. And little about Obama's position on that issue will be pleasing to social conservatives.
In other religion news, the American Family Association got itself into quite a little situation with its auto-replacer yesterday. (HT to David)