"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)


just a hunch

I think it's over for Hillary Clinton. The Toyota Center in Houston is full of people who wanted to hear Obama speak tonight. Full. In Houston. In a concert setup, the center holds over 19,000. In Houston.

Of course, 5,000 showed up to see Bill Clinton at Lubbock High on Saturday afternoon. (Who knew there were 5,000 Democrats in Lubbock?)

My students voted last week on who they wanted our in-class debates to be between. Of course, their preferences for that aren't necessarily an indication of their actual voting preferences, but I don't attribute too high of a level of political sophistication to the kiddos, either. And on the Democratic side, in both classes, the vote was overwhelmingly for Obama.

Add the clear momentum with the fact that, due to the vagaries of Texas Democratic Party delegate distribution rules, heavily Hispanic districts that had low Democratic turnout in 2004 and 2006 have fewer delegates, I don't see how Hillary can win Texas. And if she can't win Texas, it's over.

I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. But I think he's got it.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree. And I think he'll beat McCain.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 12:15:00 PM

Blogger euphrony said...

I see that the Teamsters are set to endorse Obama. If that happens, Ohio is lost to Clinton, and Texas is a no-go because of the delegate distribution away from heavily Hispanic areas, as you mentioned. If Clinton can continue to carry the Hispanic vote.

Really, a more interesting story is how the Florida and Michigan drama will play out. Do you completely disregard their choices or do you count their votes when candidates were not allowed to run? Or, do you redo the whole thing? Or just parcel them out according to national trends - virtually the same as not counting them in the first place. In my opinion, it was a stupid "punishment" the party laid out, leaving themselves wide open for just this kind of debate.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 1:22:00 PM

Blogger Michael Westmoreland-White, Ph.D. said...

Clinton would have to win both TX and OH by 20 points or more to catch Obama on delegates. That can't happen--unless she totally creams him in the debates. She's stronger in debate than he is, but not THAT strong.

I agree that punishing FL and MI was stupid. It can be fixed if FL and MI hold caucuses (not primaries) in late March or early April (this has been done before), but Hillary opposes this because she wants her illegit. winnings to count. But even if she got the delegates from FL and MI, if she lost TX or OH, she can't catch Obama.

There are already calls in the Huffington Post by prominent Dems for her to quit so that Obama can concentrate on McCain. She won't before 05 March--but if she loses either OH or TX, I think Howard Dean, Pelosi, Gore, etc. will step in and talk to her and Bill and say--quit now for the good of the Party and Nation and run again in '16. They may try to force Obama to take her on as VP to keep her from dragging this out to the convention.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 4:46:00 PM


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