"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)

1.06.2008

trust the polls?

Just a little public service announcement for the politically inclined: don't pay attention to this weekend's polls from New Hampshire. While they're interesting, they were also taken on Friday and Saturday nights, which is the worst possible time to conduct a poll. Why? Because you don't get a truly representative sample. Certain demographics are likely to be sitting at home, answering the phone, while other demographics are very likely to not be sitting at home (or to have a home phone in the first place, but that's another topic). Thus, no matter how careful they are, it's very hard for pollsters to get a truly representative look at what voters are thinking.

There will be polls out tomorrow, and those are the ones that will give the most accurate picture of what's going to happen in New Hampshire on Tuesday, assuming none of the candidates majorly screws something up between now and then. Why? Because it's Sunday night, it's cold, and there's football on. People will be at home.

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