"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)


iowa caucuses predictions update

The Librarian and I spent our day hitting the sales, so I haven't been following the caucuses super-closely, but, based on a quick round-up of the news, I think my predictions from this morning were generally sound. A couple of other things:
  • Given the way the Democratic caucuses work (A minimum of 15% of people in the room have to support a candidate for him/her to win support. Supporters of candidates with fewer than 15% then switch their support to someone else), the second choice endorsements of the candidates will matter a lot. While caucus-goers are of course able to do whatever they want, many will pay attention to the direction of the precinct captains for each campaign. Edwards has to have those second-round votes to make an impact tonight. Richardson is apparently going to endorse Obama for second round voting (which is fascinating, considering that it's seemed that he was primarily running to be Hillary's VP) and there may be some vote-swapping with Obama delegates in certain precincts, although the story gets more complicated from there and Richardson's campaign denies it. There were rumors of another deal with the Biden campaign/the possibility of an Obama-Biden ticket, but apparently they haven't worked anything out thus far. (This is interesting. As much as I dislike Joe Biden, he has the foreign policy experience that Obama lacks. That would be quite a ticket.) At any rate, second-round voting will be absolutely key on the Democratic side tonight.
  • Turnout, turnout, turnout. Some college students are flying back in, and they'll definitely turn out. I think the younger crowd will make an impact, not as big as Obama hopes, but they'll be there. And they're going to make a huge difference in Ron Paul's chances.
  • This is fascinating: "Republican turnout calls are picking up Obama supporters on Republican caucus-goers lists." Republican crossover voters probably aren't going to vote for Hillary.
  • Thompson's campaign says he's staying in the race. I don't see him lasting more than a week.
  • In related news, I'd like to welcome the sudden surge of interest in this blog from the Executive Committee of the Southern Baptist Convention.

Bottom line: I think Obama wins the D's. The R's are too close to call, so I'll go safe and say Romney just barely eeks it out. Kids, this is like Christmas all over again for political scientists. It's an election year! Fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Blogger Michael Westmoreland-White, Ph.D. said...

Well, we were both right and both wrong. You were right to call it for Obama--and the youth vote really turned out which is great news for our democracy! I was right that Hillary would come in third.

Thompson's surprising 3rd place on the GOP side was the big news there. It might keep him in through NH.

Friday, January 04, 2008 2:18:00 PM


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