game day live
Right, so the Iowa caucuses are tonight. Here's my (almost fully) trained political scientist's predictions/prognostications. Take them for what they're worth:
As usual, it's all about who turns out. On the D side, if the young people and independents decide they'd like to spend a few hours locked in a room to discuss this stuff, then Obama takes it in a lock. If it's just the Democratic Party faithful, Hillary will win.
For the R's, if politically involved evangelicals turnout, Huckabee wins. Otherwise, it may be Romney or may even be McCain, especially now that we know that Thompson is probably going to drop out and endorse McCain (What will Richard Land do?)
The beauty of this year's race is that we have no idea who's going to win. The polls are all over the place. But the picture might be a little clearer later tonight. Or not. New Hampshire's probably going to turn out very differently on Tuesday than will Iowa tonight. Let the games begin!