"Africa is, indeed, coming into fashion." - Horace Walpole (1774)

1.03.2008

game day live

Right, so the Iowa caucuses are tonight. Here's my (almost fully) trained political scientist's predictions/prognostications. Take them for what they're worth:

As usual, it's all about who turns out. On the D side, if the young people and independents decide they'd like to spend a few hours locked in a room to discuss this stuff, then Obama takes it in a lock. If it's just the Democratic Party faithful, Hillary will win.

For the R's, if politically involved evangelicals turnout, Huckabee wins. Otherwise, it may be Romney or may even be McCain, especially now that we know that Thompson is probably going to drop out and endorse McCain (What will Richard Land do?)

The beauty of this year's race is that we have no idea who's going to win. The polls are all over the place. But the picture might be a little clearer later tonight. Or not. New Hampshire's probably going to turn out very differently on Tuesday than will Iowa tonight. Let the games begin!

2 Comments:

Anonymous Michael Westmoreland-White said...

I have to disagree with you on the Dem side. Yes, the youth vote could win it for Obama. Absolutely. But every political candidate who has relied on the youth vote has lost. I hope this time is different just because of what that would mean for the democracy.

But I think Hillary will lose and could even come in 3rd. Edwards polls as Iowa Dem's favorite "2nd choice." In a race this close, that gives him the edge as several candidates fail to be "viable" in various precincts. After the weird Kucinich endorsement (and it was weird since Edwards is much closer to Kucinich's views than Obama is), Obama could end up winning many 2nd choice votes, too.
But does Hillary Clinton make ANYONE's second choice list? She's got passionate supporters--and that may propel her to first place in NH and maybe even to the nomination. But in a caucus state with a tight race, I can't see it. I just can't see many Kucinich or Richardson or Gravel or Dodd supporters (maybe some Biden ones--he's also DLC like her) looking around a precinct, seeing they have less than 15% and saying, "Hmm. Well, I might as well vote for HRC then, huh?"

I can't tell whether Edwards or Obama will come in 1st--it'll be close. But I would bet on Hillary coming in 3rd. Edwards' problem is that, even if he wins Iowa straight out, he doesn't have enough time (5 days!) to capitalize on a bounce to win NH. He might come in 3rd in NH. NH will be a battle between Obama and Clinton.

But an Edwards win COULD enable him to win in Nevada or South Carolina if he gets new money. Alas, I think it more likely that Edwards will win tonight and begin to fade shortly afterword. (Huckabee is in the same boat for the GOP. A win here is about all he can expect.)

The real Obama v. Clinton contest begins in NH. So does the Romney/McCain/Guiliani contest.

Thursday, January 03, 2008 2:19:00 PM

 
Blogger texasinafrica said...

Michael, I'm seeing similar analysis of the Hillary coming in 3rd thing. IT seems possible, but at this point in the day, I'm convinced that Obama has it. I just don't think Edwards will see the surge he's hoping for - all three of them will get more than 15% in the first round in most precincts, and the second choice voters who matter (Biden, Richardson, Gravel, etc. supporters) I think will go to Obama if they're young and Hillary if they're regular caucus-goers. Anyway, we'll see, right?

Thursday, January 03, 2008 5:56:00 PM

 

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