will he? won't he? will he? won't he?
Well, Congolese Independence Day has come and gone, and aside from an unfortuante plane crash at the national celebration, things seem to have gone smoothly. That doesn't mean that the threat of insecurity isn't still looming.
Just how do we know that it's increasingly likely that the president of Congo will order troops to attack Laurent Nkunda's forces in North Kivu? Let's take a look at open sources of information, shall we?
- The pro-Kabila news outlet (radio, television, and internet!) is running a series of stories that might as well be titled, "Everything that's wrong with Nkunda."
- In his pre-recorded Independence Day address, Kabila said, "No option will be neglected in order to bring peace back to the east of the country."
- The governor of North Kivu, issued a statement urging the people of North Kivu to be patient and hope that the authorities will have kept their promises by next year's June 30 celebration. (is currently hosting a hoppin' party with music that is equally split between favorites from Delilah's Loyal Listener Club and Kenny Rogers. The scary part is that there are a couple of songs that overlap.)
It doesn't take an analytical genius to figure out where this might be headed. The real fear here is what a confrontation between Congolese troops and Nkunda's forces could trigger. Would other forces (and there are many operating in the region) come to their aid? Will the enemy of their enemy be their friend? I'm sure that the diplomats are busy trying to talk Kabila out of doing anything that could ignite a third Congo War. Here's hoping that next year's independence day will mark a real peace.